Alfreton Town vs Guiseley

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Alfreton Town

Guiseley

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 34.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.5% 2.38 DRAW 25.0% 3.95 AWAY 33.4% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alfreton Town

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alfreton Town Guiseley

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alfreton Town Guiseley

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Guiseley has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alfreton Town Guiseley

The combined recent performance profile favours Guiseley.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Alfreton Town ↑ +0.28 (+13.1%)

Guiseley ↑ +0.15 (+5.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.