CD Cuenca Jrs vs Independiente Juniors

02 Oct 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

CD Cuenca Jrs

Independiente Juniors

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 35.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% 2.69 DRAW 31.2% 3.15 AWAY 32.2% 3.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Independiente Juniors relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.0% win probability, compared with 32.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Independiente Juniors has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Cuenca Jrs Independiente Juniors

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Juniors, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Cuenca Jrs Independiente Juniors

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Independiente Juniors has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Cuenca Jrs Independiente Juniors

The combined recent performance profile favours Independiente Juniors.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CD Cuenca Jrs ↑ +0.46 (+20.6%)

Independiente Juniors = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.