Deportivo Cali (W) vs Atletico Nacional (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 23:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Deportivo Cali (W)

Atletico Nacional (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.1% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.8% 1.85 DRAW 29.0% 3.30 AWAY 19.2% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Nacional (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Cali (W) Atletico Nacional (W)

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Cali (W) Atletico Nacional (W)

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Atletico Nacional (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Cali (W) Atletico Nacional (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Deportivo Cali (W) = (0.0%)

Atletico Nacional (W) ↑ +1.00 (+25.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.