Millonarios (W) vs Independiente Santa Fe (W)

21 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Millonarios (W)

Independiente Santa Fe (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.7% DRAW 29.6% AWAY 20.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.1% 1.85 DRAW 29.0% 3.25 AWAY 19.9% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Santa Fe (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Millonarios (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Santa Fe (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Millonarios (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Millonarios (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Millonarios (W) ↓ -0.15 (-8.4%)

Independiente Santa Fe (W) ↑ +1.04 (+24.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.