EC Pelotas vs Brasil de Farroupilha

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

EC Pelotas

Brasil de Farroupilha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% 2.00 DRAW 31.8% 2.84 AWAY 23.0% 3.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for EC Pelotas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.7% win probability, compared with 45.2% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

EC Pelotas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

EC Pelotas Brasil de Farroupilha

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours EC Pelotas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

EC Pelotas Brasil de Farroupilha

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.5

EC Pelotas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

EC Pelotas Brasil de Farroupilha

The combined recent performance profile favours EC Pelotas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

EC Pelotas ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Brasil de Farroupilha ↑ +0.14 (+3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.