RC Arba vs ESM Kolea

26 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

RC Arba

ESM Kolea

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.1% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 20.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% 1.79 DRAW 30.1% 3.02 AWAY 19.0% 4.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: ESM Kolea

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

RC Arba ESM Kolea

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

RC Arba ESM Kolea

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.8

ESM Kolea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

RC Arba ESM Kolea

The combined recent performance profile favours ESM Kolea.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

RC Arba ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

ESM Kolea ↑ +0.39 (+8.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.