Ittihad Tanger vs MAT Tetouan

02 Oct 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Ittihad Tanger

MAT Tetouan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 22.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.8% 2.04 DRAW 28.8% 3.32 AWAY 24.4% 3.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ittihad Tanger has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ittihad Tanger MAT Tetouan

Shots 7.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Ittihad Tanger, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ittihad Tanger MAT Tetouan

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Ittihad Tanger has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ittihad Tanger MAT Tetouan

The combined recent performance profile favours Ittihad Tanger.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ittihad Tanger ↓ -0.18 (-7.9%)

MAT Tetouan ↑ +0.63 (+19.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.