Lanus (W) vs River Plate (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Lanus (W)

River Plate (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.0% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 57.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.0% 5.13 DRAW 26.3% 3.52 AWAY 55.7% 1.66

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

River Plate (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lanus (W) River Plate (W)

Shots 4.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours River Plate (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lanus (W) River Plate (W)

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

River Plate (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lanus (W) River Plate (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours River Plate (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Lanus (W) ↑ +0.63 (+14.0%)

River Plate (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.