29 de Septiembre FBC vs Club Olimpia de Ita

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

29 de Septiembre FBC

Club Olimpia de Ita

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 19.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.3% 1.80 DRAW 26.4% 3.50 AWAY 22.3% 4.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for 29 de Septiembre FBC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.0% win probability, compared with 51.3% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

29 de Septiembre FBC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

29 de Septiembre FBC Club Olimpia de Ita

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 7.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours 29 de Septiembre FBC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

29 de Septiembre FBC Club Olimpia de Ita

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

29 de Septiembre FBC Club Olimpia de Ita

The combined recent performance profile favours 29 de Septiembre FBC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

29 de Septiembre FBC ↓ -0.04 (-2.2%)

Club Olimpia de Ita ↑ +0.31 (+8.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.