Warrington Town vs Gainsborough

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Warrington Town

Gainsborough

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 41.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% 2.65 DRAW 25.1% 3.82 AWAY 38.7% 2.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gainsborough relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.6% win probability, compared with 38.7% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Gainsborough has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Warrington Town Gainsborough

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Gainsborough, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Warrington Town Gainsborough

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Gainsborough has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Warrington Town Gainsborough

The combined recent performance profile favours Gainsborough.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Warrington Town ↑ +0.40 (+17.6%)

Gainsborough ↓ -0.12 (-4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.