Wellington Olympic vs Ferrymead Bays

03 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Wellington Olympic

Ferrymead Bays

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.4% DRAW 17.8% AWAY 18.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% 1.62 DRAW 19.3% 5.08 AWAY 19.9% 4.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Wellington Olympic relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.4% win probability, compared with 60.8% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Wellington Olympic

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wellington Olympic Ferrymead Bays

Shots 15.5 · On target 7.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Wellington Olympic, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wellington Olympic Ferrymead Bays

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wellington Olympic Ferrymead Bays

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Wellington Olympic ↓ -0.14 (-7.7%)

Ferrymead Bays ↑ +1.74 (+54.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.