Auckland FC II vs Wellington Olympic

27 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Auckland FC II

Wellington Olympic

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.4% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 58.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.5% 4.00 DRAW 21.1% 4.44 AWAY 55.4% 1.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Wellington Olympic relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.9% win probability, compared with 55.4% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Auckland FC II

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Auckland FC II Wellington Olympic

Shots 19.3 · On target 8.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Auckland FC II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Auckland FC II Wellington Olympic

Shots allowed 22.8 · On target allowed 9.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Wellington Olympic has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Auckland FC II Wellington Olympic

The combined recent performance profile favours Wellington Olympic.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Auckland FC II ↑ +0.40 (+11.1%)

Wellington Olympic = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.