Nautico Capibaribe U20 vs Petrolina PE U20

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Nautico Capibaribe U20

Petrolina PE U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.0% DRAW 16.7% AWAY 11.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.9% 1.40 DRAW 18.4% 5.25 AWAY 12.7% 7.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nautico Capibaribe U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.0% win probability, compared with 68.9% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nautico Capibaribe U20

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nautico Capibaribe U20 Petrolina PE U20

Shots 20.5 · On target 9.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Nautico Capibaribe U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nautico Capibaribe U20 Petrolina PE U20

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.5

Petrolina PE U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nautico Capibaribe U20 Petrolina PE U20

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Nautico Capibaribe U20 = (0.0%)

Petrolina PE U20 ↑ +1.85 (+32.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.