CD Marathon Reserves vs Estrella Roja Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

CD Marathon Reserves

Estrella Roja Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 22.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.9% 1.73 DRAW 23.9% 3.75 AWAY 24.2% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Marathon Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.3% win probability, compared with 51.9% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CD Marathon Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Marathon Reserves Estrella Roja Reserves

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 4.8 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours CD Marathon Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Marathon Reserves Estrella Roja Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5

CD Marathon Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Marathon Reserves Estrella Roja Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Marathon Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

CD Marathon Reserves ↑ +0.13 (+7.9%)

Estrella Roja Reserves ↓ -0.50 (-11.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.