USD Caravaggio vs Seregno

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

USD Caravaggio

Seregno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.6% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 24.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% 1.80 DRAW 26.3% 3.40 AWAY 23.9% 3.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: USD Caravaggio

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

USD Caravaggio Seregno

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Seregno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

USD Caravaggio Seregno

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3

USD Caravaggio has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

USD Caravaggio Seregno

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

USD Caravaggio = (0.0%)

Seregno = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.