Carapegua vs Deportivo Capiata

02 Oct 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Carapegua

Deportivo Capiata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.0% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 32.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% 2.43 DRAW 26.1% 3.65 AWAY 34.7% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Carapegua relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.0% win probability, compared with 39.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Carapegua

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Carapegua Deportivo Capiata

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Carapegua, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Carapegua Deportivo Capiata

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Carapegua Deportivo Capiata

The combined recent performance profile favours Carapegua.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Carapegua ↑ +0.11 (+4.7%)

Deportivo Capiata ↓ -0.24 (-8.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.