Dundalk vs Bohemians Dublin

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Dundalk

Bohemians Dublin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.4% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 62.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.7% 5.00 DRAW 21.2% 4.64 AWAY 59.0% 1.67

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bohemians Dublin relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.9% win probability, compared with 59.0% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bohemians Dublin has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dundalk Bohemians Dublin

Shots 10.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 17.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Bohemians Dublin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dundalk Bohemians Dublin

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Bohemians Dublin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dundalk Bohemians Dublin

The combined recent performance profile favours Bohemians Dublin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Dundalk ↑ +1.62 (+47.9%)

Bohemians Dublin ↓ -0.43 (-20.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.