Sportivo Barracas Reserves vs Puerto Nuevo Reserves

22 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Sportivo Barracas Reserves

Puerto Nuevo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.7% DRAW 13.0% AWAY 9.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.1% 1.20 DRAW 14.3% 6.40 AWAY 9.6% 9.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sportivo Barracas Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Barracas Reserves Puerto Nuevo Reserves

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Barracas Reserves Puerto Nuevo Reserves

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Sportivo Barracas Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Barracas Reserves Puerto Nuevo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportivo Barracas Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sportivo Barracas Reserves ↓ -0.40 (-25.0%)

Puerto Nuevo Reserves ↑ +5.00 (+111.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.