CA Lugano Reserves vs El Porvenir Reserves

22 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

CA Lugano Reserves

El Porvenir Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 31.7% AWAY 25.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% 2.52 DRAW 31.7% 3.20 AWAY 28.1% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CA Lugano Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 40.2% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CA Lugano Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Lugano Reserves El Porvenir Reserves

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Lugano Reserves El Porvenir Reserves

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3

CA Lugano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Lugano Reserves El Porvenir Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours CA Lugano Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CA Lugano Reserves ↑ +0.02 (+0.8%)

El Porvenir Reserves ↑ +1.10 (+44.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.