Belen Arco Zaragoza vs Los Embajadores

22 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Belen Arco Zaragoza

Los Embajadores

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.5% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 60.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.8% 5.82 DRAW 21.9% 4.20 AWAY 62.2% 1.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Belen Arco Zaragoza

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Belen Arco Zaragoza Los Embajadores

Shots 13.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 5.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Belen Arco Zaragoza, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Belen Arco Zaragoza Los Embajadores

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Los Embajadores has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Belen Arco Zaragoza Los Embajadores

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Belen Arco Zaragoza ↑ +1.07 (+22.5%)

Los Embajadores ↓ -0.02 (-1.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.