Dragones Toluca II vs Ajolotes Lerma FC

22 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Dragones Toluca II

Ajolotes Lerma FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.4% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.2% 1.50 DRAW 22.6% 4.00 AWAY 17.3% 5.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Dragones Toluca II

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dragones Toluca II Ajolotes Lerma FC

Shots 12.8 · On target 7.0 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Dragones Toluca II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dragones Toluca II Ajolotes Lerma FC

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Ajolotes Lerma FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dragones Toluca II Ajolotes Lerma FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Dragones Toluca II = (0.0%)

Ajolotes Lerma FC ↑ +0.22 (+4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.