Social Atletico Television (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)

28 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Social Atletico Television (W)

Gimnasia LP (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 18.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.9% 1.98 DRAW 30.4% 3.25 AWAY 19.7% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia LP (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Social Atletico Television (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia LP (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Social Atletico Television (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Social Atletico Television (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Social Atletico Television (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Social Atletico Television (W) ↓ -0.57 (-22.4%)

Gimnasia LP (W) ↑ +2.50 (+100.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.