CD El Vencedor vs AD SESA

23 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

CD El Vencedor

AD SESA

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.2% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 25.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% 1.73 DRAW 22.8% 4.00 AWAY 24.2% 3.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AD SESA

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD El Vencedor AD SESA

Shots 5.0 · On target 1.3 Shots 14.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours AD SESA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD El Vencedor AD SESA

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8

CD El Vencedor has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD El Vencedor AD SESA

The combined recent performance profile favours AD SESA.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CD El Vencedor = (0.0%)

AD SESA ↑ +0.27 (+7.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.