Union Santa Fe (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Union Santa Fe (W)

Boca Juniors (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.0% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 68.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 9.4% 10.29 DRAW 20.9% 4.60 AWAY 69.7% 1.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Union Santa Fe (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Santa Fe (W) Boca Juniors (W)

Shots 6.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Boca Juniors (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Santa Fe (W) Boca Juniors (W)

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Santa Fe (W) Boca Juniors (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Union Santa Fe (W) ↑ +3.29 (+47.0%)

Boca Juniors (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.