Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora II

30 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Atletico El Vigia

Zamora II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 34.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.5% 2.47 DRAW 24.2% 3.92 AWAY 37.3% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico El Vigia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.8% win probability, compared with 38.5% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Zamora II

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico El Vigia Zamora II

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico El Vigia Zamora II

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Atletico El Vigia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico El Vigia Zamora II

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Atletico El Vigia ↓ -0.16 (-5.9%)

Zamora II ↑ +0.30 (+13.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.