Atletico Barinas vs Barquisimeto

30 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Atletico Barinas

Barquisimeto

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 42.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.3% 3.40 DRAW 27.9% 3.20 AWAY 45.8% 1.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico Barinas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.9% win probability, compared with 26.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Barinas

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Barinas Barquisimeto

Shots 17.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Barinas Barquisimeto

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Atletico Barinas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Barinas Barquisimeto

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Barinas ↑ +0.10 (+3.0%)

Barquisimeto ↑ +0.02 (+1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.