Uzbekistan vs Iran

24 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Uzbekistan

Iran

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 39.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 3.05 DRAW 29.4% 3.35 AWAY 38.3% 2.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Iran has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Uzbekistan Iran

Shots 6.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 9.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Iran, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Uzbekistan Iran

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Uzbekistan Iran

The combined recent performance profile favours Iran.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Uzbekistan ↑ +0.42 (+16.0%)

Iran ↑ +0.22 (+9.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.