Pescara vs Spezia

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Pescara

Spezia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.1% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 40.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% 2.88 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 39.7% 2.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Spezia

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pescara Spezia

Shots 16.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pescara Spezia

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.0

Spezia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pescara Spezia

The combined recent performance profile favours Spezia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Pescara ↓ -0.32 (-10.0%)

Spezia ↑ +0.32 (+15.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.