Cerro Largo vs Nacional De Football

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Cerro Largo

Nacional De Football

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.3% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 54.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.8% 4.81 DRAW 25.2% 3.77 AWAY 55.0% 1.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cerro Largo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Largo Nacional De Football

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Cerro Largo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Largo Nacional De Football

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Nacional De Football has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Largo Nacional De Football

The combined recent performance profile favours Nacional De Football.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cerro Largo ↑ +0.43 (+9.8%)

Nacional De Football ↓ -0.05 (-2.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.