Liverpool (W) vs Sunderland (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Liverpool (W)

Sunderland (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.7% DRAW 15.0% AWAY 10.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.1% 1.23 DRAW 15.4% 6.00 AWAY 9.4% 9.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Liverpool (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Liverpool (W) Sunderland (W)

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Liverpool (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Liverpool (W) Sunderland (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Sunderland (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Liverpool (W) Sunderland (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Liverpool (W) ↓ -0.13 (-9.6%)

Sunderland (W) ↑ +2.80 (+40.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.