Canuelas FC Reserves vs Leones de Rosario Reserves

23 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.7 pp

Canuelas FC Reserves

Leones de Rosario Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 32.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.1% 1.96 DRAW 26.6% 3.40 AWAY 27.4% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Leones de Rosario Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.1% win probability, compared with 27.4% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Leones de Rosario Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Canuelas FC Reserves Leones de Rosario Reserves

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Leones de Rosario Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Canuelas FC Reserves Leones de Rosario Reserves

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Leones de Rosario Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Canuelas FC Reserves Leones de Rosario Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Leones de Rosario Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Canuelas FC Reserves ↓ -0.34 (-14.8%)

Leones de Rosario Reserves ↑ +0.68 (+25.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.