Lower Breck vs Atherton Collieries

23 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.7 pp

Lower Breck

Atherton Collieries

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.7% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 36.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% 2.38 DRAW 27.2% 3.60 AWAY 31.6% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Atherton Collieries clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.3% win probability, compared with 31.6% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atherton Collieries has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lower Breck Atherton Collieries

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Atherton Collieries, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lower Breck Atherton Collieries

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Atherton Collieries has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lower Breck Atherton Collieries

The combined recent performance profile favours Atherton Collieries.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lower Breck ↑ +0.53 (+28.4%)

Atherton Collieries ↓ -0.10 (-3.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.