AA Esmac vs Pedreira

23 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

AA Esmac

Pedreira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.4% DRAW 11.9% AWAY 80.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.1% 13.00 DRAW 12.4% 7.40 AWAY 80.5% 1.14

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Pedreira

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

AA Esmac Pedreira

Shots 6.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 5.0 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AA Esmac Pedreira

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 2.5 · On target allowed 1.5

Pedreira has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AA Esmac Pedreira

The combined recent performance profile favours Pedreira.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

AA Esmac ↑ +22.25 (+387.0%)

Pedreira ↓ -0.31 (-21.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.