Falcon SE U20 vs AA Guarany U20

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Falcon SE U20

AA Guarany U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.9% DRAW 15.5% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.8% 1.30 DRAW 17.3% 5.25 AWAY 13.0% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Falcon SE U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.9% win probability, compared with 69.8% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Falcon SE U20

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Falcon SE U20 AA Guarany U20

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 3.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Falcon SE U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Falcon SE U20 AA Guarany U20

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.5

AA Guarany U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Falcon SE U20 AA Guarany U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Falcon SE U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Falcon SE U20 ↑ +0.03 (+2.4%)

AA Guarany U20 ↓ -0.50 (-6.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.