Atletico Morelia UMSNH vs Leon U21

24 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Atletico Morelia UMSNH

Leon U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 38.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% 2.65 DRAW 26.0% 3.50 AWAY 39.6% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Morelia UMSNH

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Morelia UMSNH Leon U21

Shots 8.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 5.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Morelia UMSNH, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Morelia UMSNH Leon U21

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Morelia UMSNH Leon U21

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Morelia UMSNH ↑ +0.05 (+1.9%)

Leon U21 ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.