Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W) vs Kiryat Gat SC (W)

24 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W)

Kiryat Gat SC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 37.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.25 DRAW 25.5% 3.54 AWAY 34.4% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Kiryat Gat SC (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.7% win probability, compared with 34.4% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Kiryat Gat SC (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W) Kiryat Gat SC (W)

Shots 9.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Kiryat Gat SC (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W) Kiryat Gat SC (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W) Kiryat Gat SC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Kiryat Gat SC (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem (W) = (0.0%)

Kiryat Gat SC (W) = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.