Honduras Progreso vs Palestino FC Choloma

23 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Honduras Progreso

Palestino FC Choloma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.9% DRAW 22.3% AWAY 42.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% 2.45 DRAW 23.3% 3.90 AWAY 39.5% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Palestino FC Choloma relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.8% win probability, compared with 39.5% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Honduras Progreso

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Honduras Progreso Palestino FC Choloma

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Honduras Progreso, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Honduras Progreso Palestino FC Choloma

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.5

Palestino FC Choloma has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Honduras Progreso Palestino FC Choloma

The combined recent performance profile favours Palestino FC Choloma.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Honduras Progreso = (0.0%)

Palestino FC Choloma ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.