Herrera FC Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional

26 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Herrera FC Reserves

SD Atletico Nacional

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.7% DRAW 17.2% AWAY 73.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.4% 9.15 DRAW 18.1% 5.25 AWAY 71.4% 1.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Herrera FC Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Herrera FC Reserves SD Atletico Nacional

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Herrera FC Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Herrera FC Reserves SD Atletico Nacional

Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 9.3 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.5

SD Atletico Nacional has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Herrera FC Reserves SD Atletico Nacional

The combined recent performance profile favours SD Atletico Nacional.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Herrera FC Reserves ↓ -0.20 (-2.1%)

SD Atletico Nacional ↑ +0.12 (+10.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.