Thimphu City vs Transport United FC

23 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Thimphu City

Transport United FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% DRAW 16.6% AWAY 16.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.42 DRAW 18.3% 5.00 AWAY 17.4% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Thimphu City relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.5% win probability, compared with 64.3% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Thimphu City

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Thimphu City Transport United FC

Shots 19.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 16.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Thimphu City Transport United FC

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Thimphu City has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Thimphu City Transport United FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Thimphu City.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Thimphu City ↓ -0.03 (-2.2%)

Transport United FC ↑ +0.75 (+13.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.