Penarol vs Boston River

26 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Penarol

Boston River

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 12.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.4% 1.48 DRAW 21.5% 4.42 AWAY 14.1% 6.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Penarol has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penarol Boston River

Shots 10.8 · On target 7.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Penarol, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penarol Boston River

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Penarol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penarol Boston River

The combined recent performance profile favours Penarol.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Penarol ↑ +0.10 (+6.9%)

Boston River ↓ -0.70 (-9.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.