Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia

24 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Papua New Guinea

New Caledonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 30.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% 2.35 DRAW 27.9% 3.40 AWAY 31.7% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: New Caledonia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Papua New Guinea New Caledonia

Shots 2.0 · On target 1.5 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours New Caledonia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Papua New Guinea New Caledonia

Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Papua New Guinea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Papua New Guinea New Caledonia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Papua New Guinea ↓ -0.10 (-4.1%)

New Caledonia ↑ +0.25 (+9.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.