Agropecuario Reserves vs CA Colegiales Reserves

24 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Agropecuario Reserves

CA Colegiales Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.9% DRAW 11.0% AWAY 5.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 81.4% 1.17 DRAW 12.7% 7.50 AWAY 5.9% 16.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Agropecuario Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 83.9% win probability, compared with 81.4% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Agropecuario Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Agropecuario Reserves CA Colegiales Reserves

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 6.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Agropecuario Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Agropecuario Reserves CA Colegiales Reserves

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 8.8

Agropecuario Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Agropecuario Reserves CA Colegiales Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Agropecuario Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Agropecuario Reserves ↓ -0.33 (-22.3%)

CA Colegiales Reserves ↑ +8.50 (+113.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.