Real Pilar Reserves vs Argentino Merlo Reserves

24 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Real Pilar Reserves

Argentino Merlo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.3% DRAW 17.9% AWAY 15.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.7% 1.35 DRAW 18.3% 5.00 AWAY 14.1% 6.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Argentino Merlo Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Pilar Reserves Argentino Merlo Reserves

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Pilar Reserves Argentino Merlo Reserves

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Argentino Merlo Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Pilar Reserves Argentino Merlo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Argentino Merlo Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Real Pilar Reserves ↑ +0.02 (+1.3%)

Argentino Merlo Reserves ↑ +0.50 (+8.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.