Nangkiew Irat vs Mawlai SC

25 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Nangkiew Irat

Mawlai SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.7% DRAW 17.6% AWAY 72.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.3% 9.20 DRAW 18.4% 5.15 AWAY 71.2% 1.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Mawlai SC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nangkiew Irat Mawlai SC

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nangkiew Irat Mawlai SC

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Mawlai SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nangkiew Irat Mawlai SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Mawlai SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Nangkiew Irat ↑ +3.20 (+53.3%)

Mawlai SC = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.