Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves vs CD INCA Aruba Reserves

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves

CD INCA Aruba Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.1% DRAW 13.0% AWAY 8.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.6% 1.22 DRAW 14.6% 6.33 AWAY 9.8% 9.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 78.1% win probability, compared with 75.6% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves CD INCA Aruba Reserves

Shots 17.5 · On target 9.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves CD INCA Aruba Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.0

CD INCA Aruba Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves CD INCA Aruba Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Alianza FC San Salvador Reserves ↑ +0.02 (+1.8%)

CD INCA Aruba Reserves ↑ +0.90 (+10.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.