Bolivia vs Paraguay

27 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.5 pp

Bolivia

Paraguay

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.7% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 57.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.2% 6.90 DRAW 22.1% 4.43 AWAY 63.7% 1.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bolivia clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 18.7% win probability, compared with 14.2% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bolivia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bolivia Paraguay

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Bolivia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bolivia Paraguay

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 20.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Bolivia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bolivia Paraguay

The combined recent performance profile favours Bolivia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bolivia ↓ -0.29 (-3.9%)

Paraguay ↓ -0.12 (-7.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.