Union Espanola (W) vs Universidad Catolica (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.0 pp

Union Espanola (W)

Universidad Catolica (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 8.9% DRAW 15.5% AWAY 75.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.6% 8.30 DRAW 17.8% 5.39 AWAY 70.6% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Universidad Catolica (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 75.5% win probability, compared with 70.6% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Universidad Catolica (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Espanola (W) Universidad Catolica (W)

Shots 10.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 22.0 · On target 10.0

Recent attacking output favours Universidad Catolica (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Espanola (W) Universidad Catolica (W)

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Universidad Catolica (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Espanola (W) Universidad Catolica (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Universidad Catolica (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Union Espanola (W) ↑ +1.30 (+18.6%)

Universidad Catolica (W) = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.