Nacional Asuncion Reserves vs Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

25 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Nacional Asuncion Reserves

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 27.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% 1.83 DRAW 25.1% 3.66 AWAY 24.9% 3.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sportivo Ameliano Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.9% win probability, compared with 24.9% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nacional Asuncion Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 13.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Sportivo Ameliano Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nacional Asuncion Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nacional Asuncion Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportivo Ameliano Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nacional Asuncion Reserves = (0.0%)

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves ↑ +0.09 (+2.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.