Deportivo Maldonado Reserves vs Penarol Reserves

28 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Penarol Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.8% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 39.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% 2.88 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 39.6% 2.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Maldonado Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Penarol Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Penarol Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves = (0.0%)

Penarol Reserves ↑ +0.28 (+13.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.