Club Oriental Reserves vs Cerro Largo Reserves

28 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

Club Oriental Reserves

Cerro Largo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 32.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% 2.50 DRAW 26.5% 3.50 AWAY 36.4% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Club Oriental Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.8% win probability, compared with 37.1% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club Oriental Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Oriental Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

Shots 10.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 4.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Club Oriental Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Oriental Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Oriental Reserves Cerro Largo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Oriental Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Club Oriental Reserves = (0.0%)

Cerro Largo Reserves = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.